Serbia joining the European Union: An anp model for forecasting the accessing date

Abstract

© 2019 International Journal of the Analytic Hierarchy Process. For the Republic of Serbia to acquire full membership in the European Union depends on a large number of factors, and it is very difficult to predict whether the country will attain membership and when it will happen. This paper first describes the Analytic Network Process (ANP), which is then applied to predict the most probable date of the Republic of Serbia's entry into the European Union taking into account the economic, political and legal conditions that the Republic must fulfill in the stabilization and association process. The model is based on negotiating chapters that are considered crucial in the process of Eurointegration and their interactions and relationships. The work is an extensive and improved version of the paper titled Forecasting the accession of the Republic of Serbia to the European Union by using the Analytic Network Process (Krstić et al., 2018). It is based on the complex network model of the Analytic Network Process, which encompasses not only multiple clusters and their elements, as well as their external and internal networks of influence, but in particular the impact of alternatives on relevant factors. All calculations were performed using the SuperDecisions software package.