Has COVID-19 pandemic crisis changed the EU convergence patterns?

Abstract

Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, governments across the EU countries had to introduce measures to close the borders, restrict the movement of people, and suspend business activities in nonessential sectors. These restrictions threatened to result in the worst economic shock since the Great Depression of the 1930s. This situation forced the EU leaders to quickly implement urgent measures in the form of stimulating packages in order to avoid a catastrophic economic collapse. The measures, however, have been implemented without coordination and insufficiently considering the solidarity principle among the Member States, which is one of the EU basic principles. In that way, the already existing gap in development among the EU economies has become even more pronounced, which will certainly have an impact on the convergence process in the EU. In that sense, this paper is aimed at analyzing the convergence process among the EU economies during the period from 2004 to 2020 and comparing differences among the EU member states during the pandemic crisis (in 2020) and the global economic crisis (in 2008). To define the policy recommendations for overcoming the crisis and for obtaining a satisfactory level of real convergence and nominal convergence, Hierarchical Agglomerative Clustering (HAC) was performed on the data for 2020 and five clusters were derived.