Matematički model za ocenu rizika u funkciji ljudskih resursa

Abstract

The human resource risks are unique, not only for their complexity, but also the connection with human behavior, cultures of different countries, demographics and established values. Companies that inaccurately assess the potential impact and unpredictability of the human element are threatened by internal and external influences. We have considered these risks in the function of four main categories of company risk: compliance risk, financial risk, strategic risk and operational risk, as well as the main sub-elements of each risk group assessed by experts with linguistic variables. The choice of appropriate methods and mathematical models for risk assessment in relation to the specific characteristics of the system under consideration, available information and resources is the key parameter of any reliable assessment. Therefore, there is a need to develop a mathematical model that can contribute to the increase of the reliability of risk assessment and reduction of the decision makers’ subjectivity in relation to the level of risk. Having in mind the specificities of human resources and the unpredictability of human behavior, fuzzy techniques can provide satisfactory results in risk assessment. The authors developed the Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchical Process (fuzzy AHP) model of the overall risk in HR function using a professional estimate of the weight of previously defined risk elements, their interconnection and relative significance in relation to overall risk. Fuzzy AHP model, as a multi-criteria method of decision analysis, is flexible, allows relatively simple correction of input parameters and fast generation of total risk values in a particular process.