Serbian Export to the EU Market: A Dynamic Shift-Share Analysis

Abstract

The paper deals with the analysis of Serbian export competitiveness in regards to the EU market in the period between 2012 and 2021, using the location quotient and dynamic shift-share analysis, which breaks down changes in exports into three components: the national, the industrial, and the regional component. The results show that EU countries are suitable destinations for Serbian products. Also, products from several Serbian sectors are attractive in the European market. The location quotient shows that the most important export destinations are Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania, and Slovenia. The dynamic shift-share analysis results show that there was an increase in the competitiveness of Serbian exports to the European Union market in the observed period, mostly thanks to the national component. The regional component is expressed in some countries, such as Poland and Hungary, while the industrial component is the least represented.