Models For Estimating Production Phase Duration As A Foundation for Efficient Production Management

Abstract

In modern manufacturing systems, accurately defining and managing the duration of individual production phases is crucial for achieving high efficiency and reliable delivery timelines. This paper presents two methodologically grounded models for estimating the duration of the production phase: one based on the technological (ideal) cycle, and the other on the projected (realistic) cycle that incorporates organizational and logistical constraints. A case study is provided involving the packaging of a 20 mm round into a crate, part of the production program of the ‘Sloboda’ Co. - Cacak, Serbia. By analyzing the flow coefficient, defined as the ratio between the actual and ideal/projected cycle durations, potential inefficiencies within the production process can be identified. The results suggest that predefining projected durations for each production phase significantly improves planning accuracy and coordination across the production flow. The proposed models serve as a practical decision-support tool within production management systems.