Adjustment of mortality tables by limited fluctuation method

Abstract

Credibility theory provides tools to deal with the randomness of data that is used for predicting future events. The credibility procedure is used to improve the statistical significance of parameter estimates in a given task. Because it has been used since the very beginnings of actuarial practice, it is one of the most productive actuarial techniques, and is still being developed and adapted to solve contemporary problems. In this paper, the credibility procedure will be used to modify the standard population mortality table, more specifically the Serbian mortality table for females (Mortality Tables of the Republic Statistical Office 2010-2012), to reflect the experience with a particular subset of population and thus establish a more reliable estimate of mortality by including into analysis the experiential data and subgroups.