Prediction of dissolved oxygen in reservoirs using adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system

Abstract

Predicting water quality is the key factor in the water quality management of reservoirs. Since a large number of factors affect the water quality, traditional data processing methods are no longer good enough for solving the problem. The dissolved oxygen (DO) level is a measure of the health of the aquatic system and its prediction is very important. DO dynamics are highly nonlinear and artificial intelligence techniques are capable of modelling this complex system. The objective of this study was to develop an adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to predict the DO in the Gruža Reservoir, Serbia. The fuzzy model was developed using experimental data which were collected during a 3-year period. The input variables analysed in this paper are: water pH, water temperature, total phosphate, nitrites, ammonia, iron, manganese and electrical conductivity. The selection of an appropriate set of input variables is based on the building of ANFIS models for each possible combination of input variables. Results of fuzzy models are compared with measured data on the basis of correlation coefficient, mean absolute error and mean square error. Comparing the predicted values by ANFIS with the experimental data indicates that fuzzy models provide accurate results. © IWA Publishing 2012.